Opinion Polling for the September 2019 Israeli Legislative Election

The September 2019 election was called after Likud and Kahol Lavan had tied at 35 seats each in April, and negotiations to form a coalition failed.[1] Israeli law bans the publication of polls during the three days before voting.[2] Exit polls were released after polling stations closed at 10 p.m. on election day.[3] September 13 was the last day on which pre-election surveys could be published.[4]

Pollsters operated in a recognised environment of difficulty. Analysts warned that religious and right-wing voters had historically been harder to capture accurately, either because of a "shy Tory" effect — voters unwilling to identify with what they perceived as a liberal elite — or because some deliberately misled interviewers.[5][6] One study combining six polls from July and August surveyed 2,173 Jewish Israelis and found that undecided or unsure voters accounted for 15 to 25 percent of respondents, meaning pollsters' published projections could vary substantially depending on how they treated that group and on assumptions about turnout among Arab and Haredi voters.[2]

Engagement with the repeat election was also lower than in April. An Israel Democracy Institute survey of 769 adults conducted August 25–29 found that 39 percent of respondents said they were following the September campaign less than the April campaign, while only 17 percent said they were following it more.[7]

An August 6 analysis described a "plethora of early polls" placing Likud and Blue and White at approximately 30 seats each — a combined figure that put them near the 61 seats needed to form a government if they chose to unite.[8] The same analysis noted that Yisrael Beiteinu had apparently doubled its April tally, though it did not provide a specific projected seat count for the party.[8] Zehut and Otzma Yehudit were described as polling well short of the four-seat threshold, raising the prospect that votes cast for them would be wasted.[8]

By September 5, projections had shifted somewhat. Straw polls reported around that date put United Torah Judaism and Shas at roughly eight seats each, Yamina at perhaps eleven, and Yisrael Beiteinu at as many as ten; Arab parties were expected to win 10 to 13 seats.[6] Only 5 percent of Israeli Jewish respondents in an August survey expected a centrist coalition headed by Kahol Lavan, and analysts cautioned that the projections might underestimate religious voters, who were considered especially motivated to cast ballots again after the April contest.[6]

The August 2019 Peace Index from Tel Aviv University found that roughly one-quarter of the Israeli public preferred a right-wing government led by Likud and one-quarter preferred a center-left government led by Blue and White. More than half of Jewish respondents preferred a Likud-led government, while about two-thirds of Arab respondents preferred a center-left government; the widespread expectation captured by the survey was that Likud would form the next government.[9] About half of respondents said they would vote according to their ideological preference, while one-quarter said they would vote strategically for the largest party in their preferred bloc.[9]

The July 2019 Peace Index similarly found most Jewish respondents preferred a Likud-led government, though support among Jewish respondents for a Likud–Blue and White unity government had fallen compared with June.[10] In both months the prevailing public expectation remained a Likud-led government with the ultra-Orthodox parties.[10]

A Maagar Mohot Institute survey of 611 people reported on August 25 found that only 61 percent of Israelis planned to vote in September, with a 4 percent margin of error.[11] Intended turnout varied by party affiliation: 65 percent among Likud supporters, 69 percent among Blue and White supporters, 55 percent among Joint Arab List supporters, and as high as 82 percent among Labor-Gesher supporters.[11]

The Israel Democracy Institute's Israeli Voice Index, conducted August 25–29 among a nationally representative sample of 769 adults (608 interviewed in Hebrew and 161 in Arabic, using internet and telephone methods), carried a maximum sampling error of ±3.7 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.[7] Among Jewish respondents, a unity government was the most popular outcome: 22 percent favored one headed by Benny Gantz and 17 percent one headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, with a Likud-led right-wing government ranking as the next preference.[7]

Among Arab respondents, political alienation was pronounced: 41.5 percent chose "None of them" when asked which type of government they wanted, and more than one-quarter chose "Don't know."[7] The survey characterized these responses as indicating disengagement from the coming election.

The week before election day saw a cluster of surveys from multiple polling organizations, all converging on a near-tie between the two leading parties but diverging on smaller parties and potential bloc totals.

A September 12 comparison of five recent polls found the average projection for Likud and Blue and White tied at 32 seats each.[12] Two of the newest polls at that point gave Likud a 2-to-4-seat lead: the Knesset Channel poll projected 36 seats for Likud and 32 for Blue and White, while the Israel Today/i24 News poll projected 33 and 31 respectively — described as Likud's largest lead of the campaign.[12] The five-poll average placed the Joint List at 10, Yisrael Beiteinu at 9, Yamina at 9, United Torah Judaism and Shas at 7 each, the Democratic Union at 5, Labor-Gesher at 5, and Otzma Yehudit at 4.[12]

The final Maariv poll, conducted by the Smith Institute on September 11–12 among 603 people using a combination of internet panel and telephone interviews, projected 33 seats for Likud, 32 for Blue and White, 12 for the Joint List, 9 each for Yisrael Beiteinu and Yamina, 8 for Shas, 7 for United Torah Judaism, 6 for the Democratic Union, and 4 for Labor-Gesher, with a 4 percent margin of error.[13] It placed the right bloc at 57 seats and the combined center-left bloc and Joint List at 54.[13] A Kan poll published around the same time projected Otzma Yehudit at 4 seats, while the Maariv/Smith poll put it at only 2.9 percent — illustrating deep disagreement among pollsters over whether the party would clear the threshold.[13]

A HOT poll conducted September 10–13 through the Panorama Markets Institute, drawing on 3,193 respondents aged 18 or older from HOT's smart-TV and viewing-app subscriber base, projected 33 seats for Likud and 32 for Blue and White, with the Joint List at 11, Yisrael Beiteinu at 9, United Torah Judaism at 8, Shas and Yamina at 7 each, the Democratic Camp at 5, and Labor-Gesher and Otzma Yehudit at 4 each, placing the right bloc at 59 seats with a reported 1.8 percent margin of error.[4] The pollster cautioned that parties near the threshold could move across it with small shifts in the sample.[4]

A Channel 12/Midgam poll published September 13 — the last permissible day — projected 32 seats each for Likud and Blue and White, 10 for the Joint List, 8 each for Yamina, United Torah Judaism, and Yisrael Beiteinu, 7 for Shas, 6 for the Democratic Camp, 5 for Labor-Gesher, and 4 for Otzma Yehudit, placing the right and ultra-Orthodox bloc at 59 seats.[14] Midgam interviewed 605 people by telephone and internet between September 12 and 13, with a stated maximum sampling error of 4 percent.[14] In the same poll, Netanyahu led Gantz on suitability for prime minister, 41 percent to 31 percent.[14]

The i24NEWS–Israel Hayom poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute and published September 13 projected Likud at 33 seats and Blue and White at 31, with a reported margin of error of 2.8 percent.[15] It placed the Joint Arab List at 12, Yisrael Beiteinu at 9, Shas and United Torah Judaism at 7 each, Yamina at 7, Labor-Gesher at 6, the Democratic Union at 4, and Otzma Yehudit at 4.[15] Among respondents who said they were definitely going to vote, Blue and White was projected at 33 seats and Likud at 32, reversing their ordering in the overall sample; the poll also found that 69 percent of Likud supporters said they definitely planned to vote, compared with 77 percent for Blue and White, 79 percent for Shas, and 77 percent for United Torah Judaism.[15]

The final Channel 12 survey, conducted by Manu Geva with 605 respondents and a 4 percent margin of error, and the final Channel 13 survey, conducted by Camil Fuchs with 943 respondents and a 3.2 percent margin of error, both projected a tie between Likud and Blue and White at 32 seats each.[16] The two surveys differed on smaller parties: Channel 12 projected the Joint List at 10 seats and Yisrael Beiteinu at 8, while Channel 13 projected them at 12 and 9.[16] Both put Netanyahu's right-wing and religious allies short of a majority, at 59 and 58 seats respectively, and Fuchs specifically warned that polling difficulties in the ultra-Orthodox community could mean Shas and United Torah Judaism were underestimated.[16] Most polls in prior months had placed the right-wing and religious bloc at 55 or 56 seats, making the late-campaign figures of 58–59 a notable upward movement.[16]

Alongside conventional opinion polls, researchers Arick Goomanovsky and Itamar Mushkin developed an election-to-election analysis that estimated voter movement by comparing April and September results at the polling-station and community level rather than relying on survey responses.[17] Goomanovsky compared polling-station results while Mushkin analysed communities; Goomanovsky said the two methods produced results that were "quite consistent."[17] The approach had not been academically substantiated, and Goomanovsky estimated the likelihood of errors at "similar to or close to 5 percent," while acknowledging the difficulty of quantifying that figure because the analysis rested on observation rather than a probability model.[17]

Their estimates suggested that 92 percent of April Likud voters voted Likud again in September, while close to 8 percent did not vote.[17] Among April Blue and White voters, 91 percent stayed with the party, and the remainder included some who shifted to Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor-Gesher, or Meretz.[17] Substantial movement was also recorded among voters of parties that had merged or reorganised between the two elections, including Labor, Meretz, and Gesher.[17]

Pollster Rafi Smith estimated separately that Yisrael Beiteinu had risen from five seats in April to at least 10 in recent polls, with its new support drawn from Likud, Blue and White, and to a lesser degree Yamina and Kulanu.[2] Smith also estimated that Otzma Yehudit would receive approximately 70,000 votes — well below the roughly 130,000 to 140,000 needed to cross the electoral threshold.[2]

After voting closed on September 17, three network exit polls were published. Channel 13 projected Blue and White at 32 seats and Likud at 30; Channel 12 projected them at 34 and 33; and Kan projected them at 32 and 31.[3] All three positioned Yisrael Beiteinu as potentially pivotal to forming any government, and most projected Otzma Yehudit below the 3.25 percent threshold.[3]

The Central Elections Committee's certified results gave Blue and White 33 seats and Likud 32, with the Joint List at 13, Shas at 9, Yisrael Beiteinu at 8, United Torah Judaism and Yamina at 7 each, Labor at 6, and the Democratic Union at 5.[18] A separate election timeline confirms the 33–32 result, Yisrael Beiteinu's eight seats, the Arab parties' thirteen seats, and the failure of the radical-right parties to cross the threshold.[19] Otzma Yehudit received only 1.88 percent of the vote and failed to pass the threshold, directly contradicting the four-seat projections that several final surveys had assigned it.[18] Turnout reached 69.8 percent.[18]

A near-final Globes count, with more than 99 percent of votes validated, had given Blue and White 33 seats and Likud 31, with the Joint List at 13, Shas at 9, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beiteinu at 8 each, Yamina at 7, Labor-Gesher at 6, and the Democratic Camp at 5.[20] Neither bloc ultimately reached the 61 seats needed for a majority.[21] The result reflected the coalition stalemate that pre-election polling had identified as a likely outcome.[1]

Pre-election surveys correctly anticipated the broad outcome — a near-tie between the two major parties and neither bloc securing a majority — but faced well-documented challenges. The threshold question for Otzma Yehudit proved the starkest polling failure: estimates ranged from below the threshold to four projected seats across different surveys, while the final result was 1.88 percent.[12][18]

Analysts had raised two structural explanations for potential underestimation of the right. First, a "shy Tory" effect could lead voters who associated support for right-wing parties with social stigma to conceal their intentions from interviewers.[5] Second, some voters in religious communities were thought to avoid or deliberately mislead pollsters, while Arab and Haredi respondents could be difficult to recruit.[6][2] Fuchs separately warned before the election that polling difficulties in the ultra-Orthodox community could mean Shas and United Torah Judaism were underestimated.[16] Low turnout was also considered by one pre-election analysis to benefit the right, whose ideological constituencies — including ultra-Orthodox voters, settlers, and their sympathisers — were thought especially motivated to participate.[5]

A 2022 academic article catalogued in the National Library of Israel examined media-sponsored pre-election polls across Israel's three elections in 2019–20 and found that, on average, polls commissioned by anti-Netanyahu media consistently underestimated the pro-Netanyahu bloc's seat total.[22] The catalog record does not provide September-election-specific figures or sufficient methodological detail to independently evaluate the finding, but the conclusion is consistent with the directional warnings analysts offered before voting day.[22]