Opinion Polling for the 2013 Israeli Legislative Election

The election for the 19th Knesset was held on January 22, 2013, with 5,656,705 eligible voters, 3,792,742 votes cast, and a national turnout of 67.0%.[1] Israel's proportional representation system, a 2% electoral threshold, and more than 30 competing parties made translating vote-share projections into seat totals a particularly uncertain exercise.[2]

The electoral threshold had earlier been raised from 1% to 2% of the vote.[2] Analyses noted that parties such as Otzma Leyisrael and Am Shalem were unlikely to clear it, while Kadima — which had held 28 Knesset members — had only recently appeared capable of crossing the threshold at all.[2] Polling averages used by the Congressional Research Service were aggregated from Maariv, Channel 2, Ha'aretz, and Walla! polls and were presented as approximate figures rounded to the nearest whole number.[3]

A contemporaneous analysis cautioned that Israeli election polls were more useful for identifying broad trends than for treating individual seat changes as reliable.[4] Israeli polls of the period commonly surveyed 400–500 respondents; a 500-person poll carried a margin of error of roughly 4%–4.5%, meaning that a movement such as a party shifting from 12 to 15 projected seats could be statistically insignificant.[4]

A Times of Israel survey conducted from December 25 to January 2 surveyed 803 likely voters, including 10% cellphone interviews and 10% Arabic-language surveys, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 3.5% at a 95% confidence level.[5] The INSS election primer, released one day before the vote, explicitly characterized itself as a guide for observers rather than a definitive projection, citing the fragmented party competition and uncertain coalition-formation dynamics as reasons for caution.[2]

Throughout the campaign period, multiple sources produced broadly similar projections showing the right-wing bloc holding between 63 and 68 of the Knesset's 120 seats, with center-left parties expected to win the remainder.[6] A January 16, 2013 analysis placed Netanyahu's right-of-center bloc at approximately 65 seats, a slight decline from earlier polling.[7] The INSS primer, issued on January 21, estimated that Likud-Beitenu combined with the ultra-Orthodox parties could reach approximately 50 seats — well below the 61 required for a governing majority on its own.[2]

The INSS primer's final-period seat ranges were: Likud-Beitenu, more than 32 seats; Labor, 16–17; Yesh Atid, 11–13; Hatnuah, 8–9; Habayit Hayeudi and National Union together, 12–14; Shas, 10–12; United Torah Judaism, approximately 5–6; and Meretz, Hadash, Balad, and United Arab List-Ta'al at approximately 4–6 each.[2] The primer contrasted the 32-plus projection for Likud-Beitenu with political strategist Arthur Finkelstein's earlier prediction of 45 seats.[2]

The joint Likud–Yisrael Beiteinu list had been projected at nearly 40 seats before mid-December 2012. After Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's indictment and resignation from the government in December 2012, polling indicated a decline to 35 seats or slightly fewer.[3] The Congressional Research Service concluded that this dip was not expected to endanger the list's first-place position but could weaken Netanyahu's coalition-building leverage.[3] Several factors were cited as possible contributors to the decline: uncertainty surrounding Lieberman's political future, concerns among Likud's Mizrahi constituencies and Yisrael Beiteinu's Russian-speaking constituencies that the merger could dilute their influence, and the option for right-of-center voters to support smaller parties without threatening the list's dominance.[3]

One of the defining trends captured by pre-election polling was the surge of Naftali Bennett's HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) party. Jewish Home had held 3 seats in the outgoing Knesset, while National Union had held 4; after they joined forces, different projections placed the ticket between 12 and 18 seats.[2][8]

One Israel Radio poll of 500 respondents projected Jewish Home at 15 seats; a later Israel Radio poll raised that projection to 18, which would have made it the second-largest faction in the Knesset, tied with Labor.[4][8] Most other polls cited by a contemporaneous report gave Jewish Home 13–15 seats.[8] The Congressional Research Service described Jewish Home as adamantly pro-settler and characterized its rise as evidence of a rightward shift within the right-wing bloc.[3] Washington Institute analyses similarly interpreted the projected gain by Jewish Home — at the expense of Likud-Beiteinu — as a movement toward more uncompromising positions within the coalition, even as polling showed that many Israelis continued to support a two-state solution.[6]

Pre-election surveys documented a shift in the issues driving Israeli voters. A poll released shortly before the election found socioeconomic issues to be the primary concern for 60% of potential voters, followed by security at 19% and peace at 16%.[9] A Times of Israel poll cited by the Congressional Research Service similarly found that 60% of Israelis viewed socioeconomic issues as the most important challenges facing the next government, compared with 35% who prioritized security and peace.[3]

On political identity, the Times of Israel survey found that 38% of likely voters identified with the political right, 36% with the center, and 16% with the left.[5] The INSS primer drew on the Israel Democracy Institute's Peace Index, which found that among the Jewish public, 53% considered Netanyahu best suited to handle political-security issues, compared with 19% for Tzipi Livni, 14% for Shelly Yechimovitz, and 8% for Yair Lapid.[2] The primer also reported that more than 60% of Jewish respondents supported a two-state solution, even as 55% identified as right-wing on this issue.[2] A Tel Aviv University Peace Index poll found that 67% of Jewish respondents said the lack of progress toward peace had nothing to do with Israel and that there was no chance of progress in the foreseeable future; 55% identified as right-wing, and 50% supported Netanyahu's course even if it meant confrontation with the United States.[6]

The Times of Israel survey also found that 51% of all likely voters said Israel was moving in the wrong direction, against 35% who said it was moving in the right direction — a gap that broke sharply along ideological lines, with 86% of left-wing voters viewing the country's direction negatively, compared with 58% of right-wing voters viewing it positively.[5]

Three television exit polls released at 10 p.m. on election night converged on several figures: all three projected Likud-Beytenu at 31 seats and Labor at 17, with Yesh Atid at 18 or 19 seats and Jewish Home at 12.[10] The channels diverged modestly on smaller parties: Channel 2 projected Shas 12, Meretz 7, and Hatnua 7; Channel 10 projected Shas 13, Meretz 6, and Hatnua 6; Channel 1 projected Shas 11, Meretz 7, and Hatnua 7.[10] United Torah Judaism was projected at 6 seats, and Balad at 2, across all three broadcasts.[10]

The exit polls estimated the right-wing and Orthodox bloc at 61–62 seats, indicating a narrow majority and identifying Yair Lapid as a likely key actor in coalition formation.[10] These figures were explicitly provisional, based on voters replicating their ballots at dozens of sample polling stations rather than on official tallies.[10] Official results were presented to President Shimon Peres on January 30, 2013, eight days after the election.[11]

The final results provided a clear benchmark against which pre-election projections could be assessed. Likud-Beiteinu won 31 seats, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 15, Shas 11, Jewish Home 11, United Torah Judaism 7, Ha'Tnuah 6, Meretz 6, Ra'am-Ta'al 5, Hadash 4, Balad 3, and Kadima 2.[12]

The most consequential polling miss was Yesh Atid. The INSS primer placed the party at 11–13 seats, while one later Israel Radio poll put it as low as 5.[2][4] The party ultimately won 19 seats, placing second and coming, as the Jewish Virtual Library described it, 'from nowhere.'[13] The cited projections did not show Lapid's party finishing ahead of both Labor and Jewish Home.[2][4]

Regional variation in the final vote also illustrated the limits of nationwide polling averages. In Jerusalem, United Torah Judaism led with 22% of the vote, followed by Likud-Yisrael Beitenu at 21% and Shas at 16%. In Tel Aviv, Yesh Atid led with 21%, followed by Likud-Yisrael Beitenu at 18% and Labor at 17%. In Haifa, Likud-Yisrael Beitenu led at 26%, followed by Yesh Atid at 18% and Labor at 15%.[14] The Jerusalem Institute's comparative table rounded the national voting rate to 68%, with Jerusalem at 65%, Tel Aviv at 63%, and Haifa at 59%.[14]