March 2012 Gaza–Israel Clashes

By early 2012, southern Israel had been subjected to persistent rocket and mortar fire from Gaza-based terrorist organizations for years. The Israel Security Agency's 2012 annual summary recorded 2,327 rocket launches from Gaza into Israel during 2012, compared with 419 in 2011.[6] The U.S. Department of State identified Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) among the Gaza-based terrorist organizations that carried out attacks against Israel that year.[5]

In the weeks before the March escalation, mortar fire from Gaza continued sporadically. On the morning of March 9, two mortar shells were fired at communities in the Eshkol region. A senior Israeli military official said rocket fire would not be tolerated even when it caused no injuries, describing the situation as "constant tension and a permanent atmosphere of terror."[1] Israeli army officials said they held Hamas responsible for the Gaza Strip and expected it to curb fire by other organizations, including PIJ.[1]

On March 9, 2012, an Israeli aircraft struck a vehicle in western Gaza City, killing Zuhir al-Qaisi, the 49-year-old secretary-general of the PRC, and another senior PRC member.[1][7] Ynet identified the second man as Ahmad al-Khanini, while a Jewish Virtual Library listing gives the name as Mahmud Ahmed Hananni.[1][8] Palestinian sources reported that a third person was seriously wounded.[1] The stated Israeli rationale was that al-Qaisi had been planning a combined terrorist attack through the Israeli-Egyptian border and that preparations were in their final stages; this was an attributed Israeli account rather than an independently established finding.[8] Ynet also attributed to al-Qaisi involvement in the August 2011 Highway 12 terrorist attack, in which eight Israelis were killed, and an April 2008 attack at the Nahal Oz fuel terminal.[7] Al-Khanini had been released in the October 2011 Shalit prisoner exchange and expelled to Gaza.[1]

Approximately three hours after the strike, PIJ opened fire against nearby Israeli communities and later extended its attacks to Beersheba and Ashdod.[2] Ashdod, Ashkelon, and Beersheba were repeatedly targeted with standard and long-range Grad rockets, while communities in the Gaza Envelope were mainly targeted with mortar bombs. Rocket fire peaked on March 12, when Ashdod was attacked three times within one hour.[2]

On March 11, two Grad missiles struck Beersheba, damaging a school and a car. Further rocket fire injured two civilians on March 12.[9] That day, two Kassam rockets also struck the Eshkol Regional Council area; one landed near a protected children's house that was unoccupied at the time, damaging the building and nearby vehicles.[10]

The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism reported that the IDF continued targeting terrorist cells and facilities during the March 9–18 period. On March 12, Globes reported strikes against a weapons-storage site in northern Gaza and five launching sites in southern Gaza.[9][10] By March 13, Globes reported that Israeli airstrikes had killed 25 Palestinians, categorized in that report as 22 terrorists and three civilians.[3] A Hamas spokesperson said 35 people were injured in one Israeli attack, mostly children; the figure was an attributed Hamas claim rather than an independently verified count.[10]

The BESA Center paper identifies PIJ as the principal organization behind the barrage and records separate claims by PIJ and the PRC about how many projectiles each fired.[2] The State Department lists Hamas, PIJ, and the PRC among Gaza-based organizations that attacked Israel during 2012, but does not assign Hamas a specific role in the March round.[5] A senior PIJ official said the rocket fire was "not to kill" but to maintain a "balance of terror," and expressed satisfaction that approximately one million Israelis were sheltering.[11]

A State of Israel report dated March 21 said that during a four-day period more than 300 projectiles were fired from Gaza, with 171 hitting Israeli territory and 65 intercepted; the remainder fell within Gaza.[4] Rockets struck the Kerem Shalom Crossing twice, though it remained open for humanitarian and commercial goods, and approximately one million Israeli civilians took shelter.[4] Schools within 40 kilometers of Gaza were closed during the escalation.[10]

On March 12, Israeli officials denied that a ceasefire had been reached and said airstrikes would continue until rocket attacks stopped, even as al-Arabiya reported that Egypt had facilitated a truce.[12] An Egyptian military official told Reuters that a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian terrorist organizations took effect at 1 a.m. on March 13, although neither side had officially confirmed it at that point. A senior Israeli official said Israel would stop its strikes if rocket fire stopped.[3]

Islamic Jihad conditioned calm on Israel ending its attacks and targeted killings. An Egyptian account described Israel as agreeing to halt targeted killings, while Israeli officials denied that formal negotiations or such an agreement had been concluded.[3][13] Islamic Jihad also accused Hamas of surrendering unconditionally to Israel as Palestinian organizations debated whether to accept calm.[3]

The BESA Center paper gives a different chronology, recording an official ceasefire announcement around midnight on March 12 that was scheduled to take effect on the morning of March 14.[2] Rocket fire did not fully stop. On March 14, a rocket hit Netivot, which was not protected by Iron Dome at the time, causing damage but no serious casualties. A salvo was fired at Beersheba on March 15; Iron Dome intercepted several rockets, while the remainder fell in empty areas.[2]

The Israel Security Agency's annual summary later recorded 173 rocket launches and 35 mortar-shell launches during March as a whole. It classified March, June, and October as three distinct rounds of fighting in 2012 and noted that mortar fire rose prominently during those rounds and during November's Operation Pillar of Defense.[6]

No single agreed projectile count exists for the March clashes. Estimates differ according to the period measured and whether a figure counts launches, impacts, mortar shells, or rockets whose expected impact was prevented by interception.

The BESA Center paper records several competing estimates: the PRC claimed it fired 53 rockets; PIJ claimed 180 missiles and rockets, including 80 Grads; Israeli media estimated 300 rockets; and the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center estimated 167–177 rockets that hit or would have hit Israeli targets if not intercepted. BESA's own estimate was 200–300 rockets in three days.[2] The State of Israel report counted more than 300 projectiles fired over four days, including 171 that hit Israel and 65 interceptions.[4] ICT reported more than 200 rockets for March 9–18, while Calcalist reported approximately 200 rocket and mortar impacts over four days.[9][13] These figures describe different periods and categories and are not directly comparable.

Ceasefire accounts also differ. Israeli officials denied on March 12 that an agreement had been reached.[12] Globes reported that an Egyptian official placed its start at 1 a.m. on March 13, without official confirmation from either side.[3] BESA recorded an announcement around midnight on March 12 that was scheduled to take effect on March 14, followed by additional rocket fire on March 14 and 15.[2]

Three fully operational Iron Dome batteries were deployed in southern Israel and began engaging rockets promptly after the outbreak on March 9.[2] The batteries defended major southern cities, and the BESA Center paper reported 57–59 successful interceptions with nine rockets penetrating the defensive shield. It described an 86% success rate while also noting other reported rates of 80% and 75%, without resolving the discrepancy.[2]

BESA characterized Iron Dome as effective but not airtight. Schools and public events were suspended, while daily life and trade were disrupted despite the interceptions.[2] In a March 19 article, Brig. Gen. Danny Gold, a former head of research and development at Israel's Defense Ministry, argued that Iron Dome could save lives, limit economic damage, and give Israeli decision-makers and the military greater room for diplomatic maneuver during crises. He also argued that the system allowed offensive operations to be conducted while maintaining confidence in Israel's defensive capability.[14]

Reported Israeli casualty figures vary across sources. The BESA Center paper records one person severely wounded in the Gaza Envelope, two lightly wounded in Ashdod, and one lightly wounded in Netivot, explicitly excluding trauma victims from its tally.[2] ICT reports five injured Israeli civilians for March 9–18, specifying three people injured directly by rocket fire on March 9 and two more on March 12.[9] A Grad rocket struck a Beersheba school and damaged a car, while shrapnel damaged buildings and shattered shop windows on a main Ashdod thoroughfare.[9][2]

Palestinian fatality estimates also vary by source and reporting period. The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center estimated approximately 16 Palestinian operatives killed during the escalation, including senior PIJ operatives Ahmed Hajaj, Farouq Fahed, and Hazem Qara'qi.[15] ICT reported three people killed in the two March 9 airstrikes, while Ynet identified two of the dead as senior PRC members.[9][1] Globes reported 25 Palestinians killed through March 13 and categorized them as 22 terrorists and three civilians.[3] A Hamas spokesperson separately claimed that 35 people, mostly children, were injured in a March 12 Israeli attack.[10]

The March 2012 escalation took place amid changing regional dynamics. A March 20 analysis said Egyptian intelligence chief Murad Mowafi brokered the ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, describing the mediation as part of Egypt's recurring role in Gaza-related crises.[16]

An analysis by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs argues that PIJ fired most of the Grad rockets during the latest round of hostilities, that the Grads originated in Iran, and that PIJ apparently possessed longer-range Iranian-made Fajr rockets it had not yet used.[17] The same analysis argues that weakened Egyptian control over Sinai and the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime enabled weapons to be funneled into Gaza, including antiaircraft missiles that had not yet been deployed. These points are analytical interpretations rather than independently confirmed operational findings.[17]

A Congressional Research Service report dated March 12 noted that, although its rocket-range graphic referred exclusively to Hamas, other Palestinian organizations—including the PRC and Islamic Jihad—had also fired rockets into Israel.[18] The U.S. Department of State identified March as one of four months in which Israel experienced major escalations in rocket attacks from Gaza, alongside June, October, and November.[5]