Israeli–Palestinian Conflict: 2015 Timeline

The year began with a consequential legal and diplomatic development: on January 1, 2015, the Palestinian Authority lodged a declaration accepting International Criminal Court jurisdiction over alleged crimes in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, dating back to June 13, 2014.[1] The following day, January 2, it deposited an instrument of accession to the Rome Statute with the UN Secretary-General.[1] The ICC Prosecutor announced a preliminary examination into the "situation in Palestine" on January 16, and the Statute formally entered into force for the State of Palestine on April 1.[1][2] A later ICC chamber decision described Palestine as a State Party for purposes of the Statute but explicitly declined to rule on whether Palestine met the requirements of statehood under general international law; Canada formally objected to the accession at the time.[2]

Israel's response was swift and tangible. At the start of the year, Israel froze NIS 500 million in Palestinian tax revenues it collected on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, citing the PA's ICC filings.[3] The freeze came after a failed UN Security Council resolution calling for an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and East Jerusalem within three years, and Palestinian officials condemned the move while stating their intention to pursue ICC membership.[3] In late March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the release of the accumulated revenues, with his office citing "humanitarian concerns and in overall consideration of Israel's interests at this time."[4] Reports described conflicting accounts about whether the release was linked to Palestinian commitments on security cooperation and ICC complaints: Israeli sources described a secret arrangement, while Palestinian sources denied it.[4]

Israel held nationwide Knesset elections on March 17, 2015. Likud won 30 seats and the Zionist Union won 24, resulting in a coalition government led by Netanyahu.[5] During his campaign, Netanyahu had pledged not to support an independent Palestinian state if reelected; he subsequently said he remained committed to Palestinian statehood if conditions in the region improved.[5][6] Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said Netanyahu's campaign comments indicated there was no serious Israeli intention to reach a two-state diplomatic solution.[5]

In June 2015, the Palestinian unity government that had formed after the 2014 Fatah-Hamas reconciliation resigned. Abbas announced the government was unable to function in the Gaza Strip. Fatah and Hamas renewed talks in December, but the 2014 reconciliation agreement remained disputed between the two parties.[7] Separately, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad issued antisemitic statements in connection with rocket and other attacks launched from Gaza against Israel during the year, including a June 3 claim by a Salafist group calling itself the Omar Brigades that it had fired three rockets from Gaza.[8]

Violent incidents punctuated the months before the major autumn escalation. On June 19, a shooting killed an Israeli settler near the Dolev settlement and injured another person.[9] On July 3, 17-year-old Muhammad Sami Ali Kusbah was killed near Qalandiya; Israeli military sources said he had thrown rocks at an officer's vehicle, while Palestinian sources said he was shot while attempting to climb the separation barrier.[9]

Clashes at the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount began well before the autumn crisis. On July 26, Israeli police barricaded Muslim protesters inside Al-Aqsa Mosque before opening the site to Jewish Temple Mount activists, before and after a visit by Israeli Agriculture Minister Uri Ariel.[8] Similar clashes occurred on September 13, again before and after a visit by Ariel, with police barricading protesters inside the mosque before opening the compound to activists.[8]

The worst single atrocity of the summer was the Duma arson. On the night of July 31, arsonists firebombed two homes in the Palestinian village of Duma in the West Bank. Eighteen-month-old Ali Dawabsheh died in the fire; his father, Saad, died of his burns on August 8, and his mother, Riham, died on September 6.[9][10] The family's four-year-old son survived with severe burns.[8] Hebrew graffiti reading "Revenge" and "Long Live King Messiah" was found at the scene, and Israeli authorities and other parties described the attack as suspected Jewish extremist or "price tag" violence.[9][11] Prime Minister Netanyahu called it "a terror attack in every respect," and both Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas condemned the killings.[9][10] Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon stated on September 9 that it was highly probable that an "extreme group of Jews" had committed the attack.[9] The Shin Bet later classified the Duma arson as the most prominent attack by Jewish perpetrators in 2015.[12]

At the international level, on September 10, the UN General Assembly voted 119–8 to allow the Palestinian flag and the Holy See's flag to be displayed at UN headquarters alongside those of member states.[13] Israel and the United States voted against the resolution, and the U.S. ambassador noted that raising the flag was not a substitute for negotiations.[13] On September 30, the Palestinian flag was raised for the first time at UN headquarters in New York, shortly after Abbas addressed the General Assembly.[14][15]

Tensions at the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount escalated sharply around the Jewish High Holidays. In August, Israeli police imposed an unprecedented eight-week restriction on access to the site for some Muslims, corresponding to the High Holiday period in September and October; the report says at least 27 days during 2015 included age restrictions on Muslim visitors, and on several days police barred all Muslim women from visiting during non-Muslim visiting hours.[8] Israeli authorities cited altercations and security concerns; the Waqf and the Palestinian Authority disputed the restrictions and said they breached the status quo.[8]

The escalation in mid-September coincided with Rosh Hashanah. Young Muslims barricaded themselves inside Al-Aqsa Mosque and stockpiled stones, amid fears that Israeli actions were intended to change the status of the compound.[16] Israeli security forces used rubber bullets and some live fire to clear a barricade at the mosque and confiscated pipe bombs from an East Jerusalem apartment.[6] During three days of clashes, at least 44 Palestinians were injured by Israeli police using tear gas and rubber bullets, while 13 Israeli police officers were injured by stone-throwing protesters; some press accounts also reported Molotov cocktails.[8] Damage was reported to mosque windows, doors, and carpets.[8]

On the evening of September 13, stones struck the car of Alexander Levlovitz, 64, as he drove home from a Rosh Hashanah family dinner, causing him to crash. Sources variously date his resulting death to September 13 or September 14.[17][18] His death became one of the opening fatalities of what developed into a sustained wave of violence. On September 17, the UN Security Council issued a public statement encouraging greater coordination between Israel and Jordan's Waqf department, urging that the status quo of the Haram al-Sharif be maintained and that visitors be able to enter without fear of violence or intimidation.[19]

On September 30, Abbas addressed the UN General Assembly and said the Palestinians could not continue to be bound by signed agreements with Israel, and that Israel must assume its responsibilities as an occupying power.[20] That same day, the Palestinian flag was raised at the United Nations; Abbas called September 30 "Palestinian Flag Day" and expressed hope that the flag would also fly in East Jerusalem.[15] Whether Abbas's UN speech marked a cause of the subsequent violence or simply coincided with it is a matter of political interpretation rather than settled fact.

Muslim access to the holy site was also restricted during a consecutive period beginning at the end of September.[8]

The Shin Bet's annual summary reported that the wave of violence "broke out in October," with Jerusalem, Hebron, and surrounding areas as its main loci.[12] A separate retrospective account dates the beginning of the phase to mid-September; the two accounts differ in how they identify the wave's onset, and the Shin Bet report itself distinguishes the January–September period from the October–December surge in fatalities and injuries.[18][12]

On October 1, near the Beit Furik intersection in the West Bank, Israeli couple Eitam and Naama Henkin were shot and killed while driving; their four young children were in the back seat and witnessed the attack but were not physically injured.[21][17] Later accounts identified members of a Hamas cell as responsible.[22]

On October 3, Rabbi Nehemia Lavi and Aharon Banita-Bennet were stabbed to death near Lions' Gate in Jerusalem's Old City; a two-year-old child and other bystanders were among those injured.[17][6] Police shot and killed the attacker. These early October attacks became prominent markers of the autumn escalation, though violence had already been building since mid-September.

On October 8, stabbings were reported in Jerusalem's French Hill neighborhood, in Hebron, and in Afula; another attack with a screwdriver occurred near IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.[18] On October 10, Israeli security forces fired on Palestinian demonstrators approaching the Gaza border fence, killing seven and injuring 60, according to the State Department report.[9] Separately, Palestinian sources alleged that Israeli fire killed two teenagers, aged 13 and 15, during that weekend's clashes at the Gaza border.[23]

On October 12, two Palestinian cousins stabbed Israelis in Jerusalem's Pisgat Zeev neighborhood; those targeted included a 13-year-old Israeli boy.[18] October 13 proved one of the bloodiest single days: two attackers boarded Egged bus 78 in Jerusalem's Armon Hanatziv neighborhood, one armed with a gun and one with a knife, killing two passengers at the scene and critically wounding Richard Lakin, who died on October 27; more than a dozen others were injured.[17][24] The same day, a driver struck pedestrians at a bus stop on Malchei Israel Street and then attacked people with a knife, killing one person, and additional attacks were reported in Ra'anana.[25]

On October 16, Palestinians set fire to and vandalized Joseph's Tomb, causing significant damage; Abbas condemned the attack.[8] On October 18, clashes followed a visit by Jewish groups to West Bank religious sites, including Joseph's Tomb, without a security escort, causing minor injuries before Israeli forces intervened.[8] A separate chronology says approximately 100 Palestinians threw Molotov cocktails at the tomb and set part of the complex ablaze.[17]

International diplomacy intensified in response. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visited Israel on October 20 to meet officials.[26] On October 24, after meetings with Israeli leaders, Jordan's King Abdullah, and Abbas, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced steps agreed by Israeli and Jordanian authorities to reduce tensions at the holy site, including consideration of round-the-clock video monitoring and reaffirmation of the status quo.[26]

The Shin Bet's October breakdown recorded 620 attacks that month across Jerusalem, the West Bank, inside the Green Line, and in the Gaza area, resulting in 11 Israelis and one foreign national killed and 80 people injured.[27] In terms of incident geography, the agency counted 485 incidents in Judea and Samaria, 117 in Jerusalem, 11 in the Gaza area, and seven inside the Green Line for October, compared with 151, 68, four, and zero respectively in September.[27] Four attacks by Jews were also recorded that month: two vehicle arsons and two stabbings.[27]

The Congressional Research Service described the violence as most pronounced around Jerusalem's Old City but spreading to other parts of Israel and the West Bank, and noted that the pattern appeared less centrally coordinated than the protests and attacks of the first and second intifadas.[6] The fall escalation consisted largely of individual attacks — stabbings, shootings, and vehicle rammings — alongside Israeli security responses to attacks and protests.[6] Israeli authorities introduced checkpoints, barriers, closures, limits on some Palestinians' access to the Holy Esplanade, and deployed military personnel to cities.[6]

The wave of attacks continued into November. On November 3, the Knesset passed a law imposing a mandatory minimum three-year sentence for stone-throwers who threw rocks at Israelis.[17] On November 4, a Palestinian drove a car into a border police officer near Hebron, killing him and injuring at least two others.[9] On November 13, a gunman near the Otniel settlement killed two Israelis and injured at least five others, including children.[9]

On November 19, attacks in Tel Aviv and Gush Etzion killed five people. In Tel Aviv, two people were killed in a stabbing at the Panorama building; in Gush Etzion, a shooting and vehicle-ramming attack killed three.[28] On November 23, a Palestinian attacker killed a 20-year-old Israeli at a gas station near Beit Horon on Road 443; a female soldier and a passerby were lightly injured, and the attacker was shot and killed.[29] Other attacks that day were reported in Jerusalem and the northern West Bank.[29]

On December 3, Israeli forces demolished an apartment in Nablus belonging to one of the gunmen allegedly involved in the October 1 killings near Itamar.[9] Jerusalem began installing additional shielding at 300 bus stops, with steel columns erected around some stops to deter car-ramming attacks.[17] At a December 6 meeting, the Fatah Central Committee backed a strategy combining diplomatic and legal activity with continued confrontation with Israel.[30] Fatah and Hamas also renewed talks in December, though the 2014 reconciliation agreement remained in dispute between the two parties.[7]

The Shin Bet's 2015 annual summary reported 28 people killed in terrorist attacks during the year: 25 civilians — including 22 Israelis, two foreign nationals, and one Palestinian — and three members of the security forces.[12] The agency recorded 239 people injured, compared with 63 in 2014.[12] Twenty-four of the 28 deaths occurred in October–December alone, compared with four in the preceding nine months; in the last quarter, 174 non-fatal casualties were recorded, compared with 65 from January through September.[12] The Shin Bet classified 2015 as Israel's deadliest year for terrorism since 2008.[31]

Attack counts showed mixed trends. The Shin Bet recorded 1,719 attacks in Judea and Samaria, down from 1,793 in 2014, while Jerusalem recorded 635 attacks, up from 346; more than 92 percent of Jerusalem attacks were firebomb attacks.[12] The Hebron–Gush Etzion area and Jerusalem accounted for 12 and 10 of the reported deaths, respectively.[12][31] Attacks originating in Gaza declined from 121 in 2014, excluding combat incidents during Operation Protective Edge, to 44 in 2015, comprising 25 rocket-fire attacks, two mortar attacks, eight small-arms shootings, and six firebomb attacks; no casualties resulted from these Gaza attacks.[12]

The State Department's human-rights report, citing Israeli Security Agency figures, recorded 47 attacks within the Green Line during 2015 — stabbings, assaults, shootings, projectile and rocket attacks, and improvised explosive-device attacks — resulting in the deaths of five Israelis and one Eritrean.[32] It also cited 22 rockets launched from Gaza and one from Sinai, and 11 other shooting, projectile, or improvised explosive-device attacks from Gaza.[32] The report characterized the number of attacks by armed individuals as having increased during the year, while rocket and mortar attacks decreased.[32]

For the West Bank and Jerusalem, the State Department's human-rights report said Israeli forces killed 149 Palestinians during the year, 77 of whom were reportedly attempting to attack Israelis.[9] It separately described 127 Palestinian civilian deaths attributed to Israeli forces during the October 1-to-year-end wave, including 77 reportedly carrying out or attempting attacks.[9] OCHA recorded 214 settler-violence incidents resulting in Palestinian injuries or property damage through December 2, 2015, compared with 324 such incidents in 2014.[9]

A separate State Department report on international religious freedom gives additional, differently bounded fatality counts for the October–December violence: it reports 127 Palestinians and 22 Israelis killed between October 1 and the end of December on both sides of the Green Line, plus 20 additional Palestinian fatalities in Gaza — while another passage in the report gives 127 Palestinians and 16 Israelis killed in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza.[33] These figures use different geographic boundaries and categories and should not be collapsed into a single total.

The Shin Bet counted 16 terrorist attacks by Jewish perpetrators in 2015, the same number as in 2014, but noted that their severity and resulting casualties increased.[12] Beyond the Duma arson, the agency listed arsons at Dormition Abbey in Jerusalem and at the Church of the Multiplication near Tiberias.[12] In response, 90 indictments were issued in 2015 in connection with Jewish terrorism, four activists were placed in administrative detention, and 45 administrative restraining orders were issued.[12]

Sources differ on when the autumn wave of violence began. The Shin Bet's annual summary states that it "broke out in October," while a retrospective account dates the escalation to mid-September and identifies the stone-attack death of Alexander Levlovitz as its first fatality.[18][12] The disagreement partly reflects different definitions of when scattered confrontations became a sustained wave.

The legal significance of Palestine's ICC accession also remained disputed. An ICC chamber described Palestine as a State Party for purposes of the Rome Statute while expressly declining to adjudicate Palestinian statehood under general international law; Canada had objected to the accession.[2]

Accounts of individual incidents sometimes conflicted. Israeli military sources said Muhammad Sami Ali Kusbah threw rocks at an officer's vehicle before he was killed near Qalandiya on July 3, while Palestinian sources said he was attempting to climb the separation barrier.[9] On October 10, the State Department reported seven Palestinians killed and 60 injured near the Gaza border fence, while Palestinian sources separately alleged that Israeli fire killed two teenagers aged 13 and 15.[9][23]

The September Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif confrontations generated competing accounts about the conduct and intentions of protesters and Israeli security forces. Israeli authorities denied intending to alter the status quo, while Palestinian and Waqf accounts accused Israel of provocation or violations of established arrangements.[8][16] Fatality totals for October–December likewise vary with geography and counting method: the State Department's human-rights and religious-freedom reports use different categories and should be read within their stated boundaries.[9][33]