Israel–Hezbollah Conflict: January–March 2024

A later Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs retrospective described the northern hostilities as beginning on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah joined the war and presented its operations as a "support front" for Hamas.[7] It characterized the earlier exchange of fire as geographically limited and focused primarily on shorter-range weapons.[7]

The period covered here opened on January 2, 2024, when Saleh al-Arouri — deputy head of Hamas's political bureau and a senior figure in its military wing — was killed in Beirut's Dahiyeh district with six other Hamas operatives, including two senior military-wing figures in Lebanon.[1][2] Responsibility was attributed to Israel. Lebanon alleged that six missiles and Lebanese airspace were used and lodged a complaint with the UN Security Council.[2] Israel did not officially acknowledge responsibility in contemporaneous reporting.[8]

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah called al-Arouri's killing a "major and dangerous crime" and vowed that it would not go unanswered.[1][5] The Institute for National Security Studies noted that the Beirut strike occurred well beyond the border and challenged the rules of engagement that had existed before and during the war.[1] The killing initiated an escalatory cycle that continued throughout the quarter.

On January 6, Hezbollah announced what it called its "initial response" to al-Arouri's killing: 62 missiles, described as 40 rockets and 22 anti-tank missiles, directed at the Israeli Air Force aerial-control base on Mount Meron, about seven kilometers south of the border.[1] Hezbollah claimed heavy damage and Nasrallah said 18 anti-tank missiles struck the target. A later Ynet timeline reported damage and said Hezbollah footage appeared to show hits on two of the base's three domes, although the footage did not independently establish the full extent of the damage.[1][9]

On January 8, a strike hit a vehicle near Khirbet Selm in southern Lebanon, killing Wissam al-Tawil and another person.[10][11] Hezbollah identified al-Tawil as a field commander, while other accounts described him as a senior or acting commander in its elite Radwan Force. Israel did not initially confirm killing him, but Foreign Minister Israel Katz later said Israel was responsible.[11]

On January 9, Hezbollah launched explosive-laden drones at the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed, causing minor damage but no casualties.[12][13] Israel later killed Ali Hussein Burji, whom the IDF identified as the commander of Hezbollah's aerial forces in southern Lebanon and as responsible for dozens of drone operations, including the Safed attack.[12] Hezbollah announced Burji's death but denied the IDF's description of his role.[1][12]

On January 13, four infiltrators from northern Lebanon were killed by Israel.[5] The following day, an anti-tank missile attributed to Hezbollah struck the Kfar Yuval home of local emergency-squad member Barak Aylon, killing him and his 76-year-old mother, Mira.[5][9] The Jewish Virtual Library described them as the first civilian deaths on the northern border since November 13, 2023. Israel responded with air and artillery strikes on Hezbollah sites.[5]

On January 16, the IDF carried out a large wave of airstrikes and artillery fire against Hezbollah positions in Wadi Saluki, striking dozens of observation posts, military buildings, and other infrastructure in an area the IDF said Hezbollah used for concealment.[14] Hezbollah fired rockets and missiles at Ramot Naftali, Shtula, and Israeli military positions, while Israel reported additional strikes in Houla, Marwahin, and Ayta ash-Shab.[14]

Hezbollah attacked the Mount Meron air-control unit again on January 23 with rockets and anti-tank guided missiles, saying it was responding to killings in Lebanon and Syria and attacks on civilian homes.[2] On January 25, Israel struck what the Jewish Virtual Library described as a Hezbollah-Iranian airstrip at Kilat Jaber that was used to launch aerial attacks against Israel.[5]

Hezbollah also publicized the use of additional weapons. On January 25, it used an al-Mas electro-optical anti-tank guided missile against the IDF Dvoranit post; published footage showed imagery of the target through the missile's camera.[2] Hezbollah-affiliated media gave the system a range of approximately eight kilometers and attributed its design to a Russian system reverse-engineered in Iran, but the latter claim was not independently verified.[2] On January 26, Hezbollah reported using Falaq-1 rockets against the IDF Ma'ale Golan camp; affiliated media gave the weapon a range of 10 kilometers and a 50-kilogram warhead.[2]

On January 27, Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Na'im Qassem warned that an expansion of Israeli attacks would lead Hezbollah to use what he called the "fourth range" — previously unused rockets and missiles with greater reach and destructive power.[2] Hezbollah official Muhammad Raad similarly said that Israel had seen only a small part of the organization's capabilities. These were political statements rather than evidence that the threatened weapons were used during the period.[2]

In an assessment dated February 1, the Jewish Virtual Library reported that approximately 80,000 residents had been evacuated from northern Israeli communities.[5] It recorded damage to 427 homes, including 80 that sustained major damage from direct hits. The most affected communities listed were Metullah, with 131 damaged homes; Shlomi, with 130; and Manarah, with 121.[5]

A Ben-Gurion University of the Negev study documented psychological effects associated with the displacement.[15] A general-population survey conducted January 14–21, 2024, and an evacuee survey conducted March 1–9 found that evacuees reported lower societal and community resilience, hope, and morale, as well as higher distress symptoms and perceived danger, than the general population.[15] CAMERA reported in mid-March that nearly 100,000 Israelis from the north remained evacuated.[6]

On February 8, Hezbollah rocket fire struck areas of northern Israel, including Kiryat Shmona, Biranit, and Mount Hermon, wounding three Israeli soldiers, one seriously.[16] Israeli artillery and aircraft responded by striking Hezbollah targets, including a site near Khiam in southern Lebanon.[16]

On February 13, a rocket struck a vehicle near Kiryat Shmona, seriously injuring a 15-year-old boy and a 47-year-old woman.[5] The following day, a barrage of 11 Grad rockets struck Safed and nearby areas, including the IDF Northern Command headquarters.[17][18] Staff Sergeant Omer Sarah Benjo was killed and eight people were wounded, including a reservist reported in serious condition.[17][18] Hezbollah did not claim responsibility, and reporting collected by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center said some Lebanese sources suggested another party may have carried out the attack.[2]

In a February 13 speech, Nasrallah said Hezbollah was committed to fighting Israel until it was "off the map" and argued that a "deterred Israel, defeated and exhausted" would pose less danger to Lebanon than a strong Israel.[5]

Following the Safed attack, Israeli jets struck a building in Nabatieh, killing Radwan Force regional commander Ali Muhammad al-Debes, his deputy Ibrahim Issa, and another operative, according to Israeli accounts.[19][5] Israel said al-Debes had been involved in planning the Megiddo Junction bombing and other attacks.[5] Lebanese media reported civilian deaths during the same series of strikes.[19][2] Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "Hezbollah escalated by half a click — we escalated with a full step."[19]

Lebanese media also reported deaths in Nabatieh and Souaneh, including a family in Souaneh identified as Hussein Muhsen, his brother Amir, and their mother.[2] The Meir Amit center attributed these details to Lebanese reporting rather than independently establishing responsibility, and Nasrallah later cited the reported deaths as grounds for retaliation.[2]

On February 26, Hezbollah fired surface-to-air missiles at an Israeli Hermes 450 drone over Lebanon. Israel's David's Sling system intercepted one missile, but a second struck and downed the aircraft.[4] Israel responded with strikes on Hezbollah air-defense sites near Baalbek, about 100 kilometers from the Israeli border, in attacks described as among the deepest publicly confirmed Israeli strikes in Lebanon in years.[20][21]

The IDF also said it killed Hezbollah regional commander Hassan Hussein Salami in southern Lebanon that day.[20] Hezbollah retaliated by firing 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights, with no injuries reported.[20] Lebanese media separately reported that an Israeli strike on a vehicle killed two Hezbollah operatives.[21]

On February 27, Hezbollah fired approximately 35 rockets toward Mount Meron in the morning and another 20 rockets into northern Israel that evening.[2][22] An anti-tank guided missile struck the Mount Meron air-control unit, although the IDF said the base's systems were not damaged. Some rockets were intercepted and others fell in open areas; no casualties were reported.[2]

On February 28, Hamas's Izz al-Din Qassam Brigades–Lebanon claimed attacks on the Upper Galilee and Kiryat Shmona, including two barrages involving 40 Grad rockets directed at the IDF Brigade 769 headquarters at Gibor Camp and the airport camp at Beit Hillel.[2] Hamas described the attacks as retaliation for Israeli operations in Gaza and the killing of leaders in Beirut.[2]

On March 1, the IDF reported strikes on Hezbollah military buildings and infrastructure in Ramyah, Ayta ash-Shab, and Jabal Blat. In Ramyah, it said several terrorists were struck after being seen leaving a military building.[23] On March 2, Israeli aircraft attacked vehicles on the main road in Naqoura. The IDF identified those targeted as members of the Imam Hossein Division who had launched rockets at Israel, while another report described at least one of them as a Hezbollah commander.[2]

On March 4, an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon struck foreign agricultural workers in an orchard in Margaliot, killing one Indian worker. Approved accounts differed on whether seven, eight, or nine other workers were injured.[24][5] Later that day, rockets were fired toward western Galilee communities. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the Gesher HaZiv attack, saying it was responding to an Israeli strike on a civil-defense center in al-Adeisa in which three paramedics were reportedly killed.[24] Israeli aircraft subsequently struck Hezbollah targets, while other rocket fire during the early-March escalation damaged a utility pole and caused a power outage in northern Israel.[24][25]

On the evening of March 5, Hezbollah fired approximately 30 rockets toward Kiryat Shmona.[25] Iron Dome intercepted 13, 17 fell in open areas, and one rocket landed in the yard of a house. The IDF struck the launch site and an anti-tank missile position used to target the city.[25] Hezbollah said it was responding to Israeli strikes in Houla, although reports differed on the number and status of those killed there.[26]

On March 10, Hezbollah fired more than 80 rockets during attacks on northern Israel, including more than 30 toward the Mount Hermon area.[27] It also fired volleys toward Mount Meron, saying it was responding to an Israeli strike in Khirbet Selm that killed five members of one family, including three whom Hezbollah identified as its operatives.[28] The IDF reported striking the launchers used.[27]

On the night of March 11, Israeli fighter jets struck two Hezbollah aerial-force compounds in Lebanon's Beqaa region that the IDF linked to attacks against Israel.[29][30] The Meir Amit center described this as the second occasion since the beginning of the war on which the Israeli Air Force had struck Hezbollah targets deep inside Lebanon.[29] Additional strikes on March 11–12 targeted command centers near Baalbek that the IDF said were used to store assets for Hezbollah's weapons arsenal.[30][31]

On March 12, Hezbollah fired approximately 70 rockets toward the Golan Heights, followed by another 30; Hezbollah claimed that it fired more than 100 rockets at Israeli bases.[30] The IDF said it struck three launchers and later hit two Hezbollah command centers near Baalbek. Reuters-cited sources reported at least one civilian killed and others injured in the Baalbek-area strikes.[30]

A March 12 IDF update said Israel had attacked more than 1,200 Hezbollah targets from the air and more than 3,100 targets on land in Lebanon and Syria since the hostilities began.[2][29] Listed targets included more than 450 Radwan Force facilities, 150 surveillance and collection posts, 70 manned headquarters, and 50 heavy-rocket launch facilities. The IDF also reported more than 300 terrorists killed and more than 750 wounded, including five senior commanders; the figures were not reconciled with other estimates.[2][29]

On March 23, the IDF said it struck a Hezbollah weapons-storage workshop in Baalbek, about 100 kilometers from the Israeli-Lebanese border.[32] The governor of Baalbek initially reported three people wounded. Hezbollah soon fired approximately 50 rockets toward the Upper Galilee and Golan Heights; some were intercepted and the remainder fell in open areas. Israel said it struck the launch sites in response.[32]

For the period from March 18 through the early hours of March 25, Hezbollah claimed 52 attacks using anti-tank missiles, rockets, UAVs, and artillery.[33] Two Israeli soldiers were wounded on March 19. In its account of the March 23–24 Baalbek exchange, the Meir Amit center recorded Hezbollah's claim that it launched more than 60 Katyusha rockets at Camp Yoav and Camp Kela.[33] Lebanese reporting on casualties from the Baalbek strike differed, ranging from an initial account of three wounded to reports that a senior Hezbollah commander and four other operatives were killed.[33]

On March 26, Hezbollah fired projectiles at the Mount Meron air-traffic-control base and three anti-tank missiles toward Avivim, where a winery sustained heavy damage.[3] Israeli jets responded by striking a Hezbollah aerial-unit compound, including a landing strip, between Ras Baalbek and Hermel, more than 80 miles from the closest point on the Israeli border. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies described it as Israel's longest-range attack on Hezbollah to that date.[3] The IDF said Mount Meron's capabilities were not harmed and reported no injuries from either incident.[3]

On March 27, an Israeli strike hit a building in Habbariyeh, Lebanon. The IDF described it as a military compound housing an al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya terrorist cell that was planning a border infiltration.[34][35] Lebanese accounts, including the Lebanese Ambulance Association, described the site as an emergency and relief center and said seven volunteers were killed.[34][35]

Hezbollah subsequently fired approximately 30 rockets at Kiryat Shmona, saying it was retaliating for the Habbariyeh strike.[36][35] A rocket directly struck a building, killing Zahar Bashara, a 25-year-old resident of the Druze town of Ein Qiniyye, and wounding two others. Magen David Adom said he was found without signs of life and pronounced dead after being removed from the building.[36]

The IDF also struck Hezbollah cells in Tayr Harfa and Naqoura on March 27. Reuters-cited security sources reported at least eight people killed, including Hezbollah members, while the IDF said it had eliminated two Hezbollah cells.[37]

On March 28, Hezbollah fired 10 rockets at Shlomi following a two-rocket volley in which one projectile landed near Rosh HaNikra and another exploded near Goren.[37] Iron Dome intercepted nine of the Shlomi-bound rockets, and no injuries or damage were reported. The IDF responded with artillery fire toward the source of the barrage.[37]

On March 29, a strike near Aleppo airport in Syria killed 44 people, most of them members of Syrian government forces, including at least seven Hezbollah operatives.[9] Reported targets included a Hezbollah headquarters and weapons depots belonging to pro-Iranian militias, although the account did not explicitly identify the attacker.[9]

On March 31, a soldier was lightly wounded in a rocket strike in the Kiryat Shmona area.[38] Hezbollah claimed responsibility for fire toward Kiryat Shmona and launched additional projectiles toward Margaliot and Malkia. Israeli jets struck Hezbollah sites in Khiam and Rab El Thalathine, while artillery shelled areas near Houla.[38]

An Israeli aircraft also struck a vehicle near Kounin on March 31, killing Isma'il Ali al-Zein, whom the IDF described as a key operative in the Radwan Force's anti-tank unit who was responsible for dozens of attacks.[39] Hezbollah announced his death. During the week of March 25–31, Hezbollah claimed 57 attacks using anti-tank missiles, rockets, mortar fire, and UAVs and announced the deaths of 17 of its operatives.[39]

U.S. diplomatic efforts during January–March 2024 focused on partial implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 as a framework for stabilizing the border.[5] Proposals described by the Jewish Virtual Library included Lebanese army deployment along the border and Hezbollah not returning forces to areas from which they had withdrawn, while Israel would halt flights over Lebanon and pull some forces back.[5] Israel insisted that security conditions change enough to permit displaced northern residents to return. No agreement was reached during the period.[5]

By the end of March, the exchanges had not produced a diplomatic settlement, and large numbers of northern Israeli residents remained displaced.[5][6] The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center's five-month review, covering October 2023 through March 8, 2024, recorded 959 attacks claimed by Hezbollah.[2] Its breakdown included 266 anti-tank guided-missile attacks, 73 Burkan heavy-rocket attacks, 40 Falaq-1 rocket attacks, 31 suicide-drone attacks, and six surface-to-air-missile attacks. These were cumulative October–March figures rather than totals limited to the quarter covered here.[2]

Casualty figures varied according to source, methodology, and cutoff date. Hezbollah announcements accounted for at least 232 Hezbollah operatives and 45 operatives from other organizations killed through March 8.[2] The Lebanese research organization Information International counted 228 Hezbollah operatives among 290 people killed in Lebanon through March 5, while the IDF reported more than 300 terrorists killed by March 12.[2][29] No reconciled total was available across these accounts.

A February 4 Hezbollah infographic claimed that approximately 2,000 Israelis had been killed or wounded. The Meir Amit center characterized that figure as fabricated and inconsistent with documented casualties.[2]

Several incidents generated materially conflicting accounts. Responsibility for the January 2 killing of al-Arouri was attributed to Israel, but Israel did not officially acknowledge the Beirut strike in contemporaneous reporting.[2][8] Lebanon's UN complaint alleged that Israel used six missiles and Lebanese airspace.[2]

Hezbollah did not claim the February 14 Grad barrage that killed Staff Sergeant Benjo in Safed, and some Lebanese sources suggested that another organization may have carried it out.[17][2] Accounts of the subsequent Israeli strikes in and around Nabatieh also differed over the identification of those killed as Hezbollah operatives or civilians.[19][2]

The March 27 Habbariyeh strike produced the period's sharpest competing narratives. The IDF described the site as a military compound containing a terrorist cell preparing an infiltration, while Lebanese organizations described it as an emergency and relief center staffed by volunteers.[34][35]

Technical descriptions of the al-Mas missile, including claims that it was derived from a Russian design reverse-engineered in Iran, originated with Hezbollah-affiliated media and were not independently verified.[2] Hezbollah's warning that it could deploy a "fourth range" of longer-range weapons was a political threat; the cited accounts do not establish that those specific weapons were used during this quarter.[2]