Palestinian Rocket Attacks on Israel in 2016

Rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel had been a persistent feature of the conflict since Hamas's takeover of Gaza in 2007, with annual totals fluctuating dramatically between years of intense conflict and periods of comparative quiet. The period following Operation Protective Edge in 2014 saw a significant reduction in rocket launches, and 2016 represented the low point of that quieter phase.[2] A review covering 2015–2017 characterized the roughly three-and-a-half years after Operation Protective Edge as relatively the quietest period of the preceding decade, while emphasizing that fire from Gaza did not stop entirely.[2]

Home Front Command data recorded 35 rocket-and-mortar firing incidents from Gaza toward Israel during 2016, compared with 24 in 2015 and 46 in 2017.[3] A separate breakdown recorded 15 rockets and 20 mortar shells launched from Gaza toward Israel during 2016 — a combined total of 35 projectiles.[2] Compared with 2015, rocket launches declined from 21 to 15, while mortar-shell launches rose from 3 to 20.[2] These figures differ from other commonly cited totals because different sources count incidents, individual projectiles, or only rockets that struck Israeli territory, excluding launches that fell short inside the Gaza Strip.

January 1: Contemporary accounts differ over the number of rockets launched. One report recorded four rockets, of which two fell in open areas in the western Negev and two fell inside the Gaza Strip, with no casualties or damage reported.[4] A separate incident table lists five rockets, with two landing in Israel and three inside the Gaza Strip.[5] A jihadist network calling itself "Troops of Jerusalem" (Ajnad Bayt al-Maqdis), described as probably affiliated with global jihad, claimed responsibility.[4] The Israeli Air Force subsequently struck four Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.[4]

January 24: One rocket was fired from Gaza and landed in an open area in the Sha'ar Hanegev Regional Council, with no damage or injuries reported.[5]

March 11: Four rockets hit the western Negev, including areas near Sderot, falling in open areas with no casualties or damage reported.[6][5] The Israeli Air Force responded by striking Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.[6] On March 12, rocket fire from Gaza toward southern Israel was followed by an Israeli airstrike against a Hamas military position beside a home. The home collapsed, killing a 10-year-old boy and a six-year-old girl.[7]

March 14: A further rocket hit an open area in the western Negev, again without casualties or damage.[6] March's five total hits represented the highest monthly total of the year.

May 7: One report identified two rocket hits in an open area in the western Negev, with no casualties or damage reported.[8] The fire occurred amid heightened tension along the Gaza border following the exposure of a Hamas attack tunnel.[8] A separate incident table records one rocket landing in the Eshkol region, after which the Israeli Air Force struck two Hamas targets.[5] Another contemporary account reported that two rockets were fired on May 6–7, with one landing in the Eshkol Regional Council and the other near the border fence.[9]

May 25: One rocket was fired from Gaza by the Salafi-jihadi organization Ajnad Bayt al-Maqdis and fell in an open Israeli field, causing no injuries.[5] The group said the attack responded to Hamas detentions of Salafi-jihadi operatives and to what it characterized as Israeli attacks on Muslims.[10] Israeli aircraft struck two Hamas targets in southern Gaza.[10]

July 1: A rocket fired from the Gaza Strip struck an after-school activity center in Sderot.[1] The building sustained damage, and several people were treated for shock; no physical injuries were reported.[1] The Shin Bet's July monthly summary recorded one Gaza-origin rocket-launching attack and two rockets launched during the incident.[11]

August 21: A rocket landed between two houses on Hanehalim Street in Sderot, near Sapir College and the city's train station, with no casualties or property damage reported.[12][13] A small Islamic State-linked Salafist group claimed responsibility, while Israel held Hamas accountable for fire from Gaza.[12] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine also issued a separate claim, linking the attack to the hunger strike of PFLP operative Bilal Kayed.[14] The Israeli Air Force subsequently carried out approximately 50 strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza.[12]

September 14–15: Three rockets were fired from Gaza toward Israel; two fell inside the Gaza Strip and one fell inside Israeli territory near the security fence, with no casualties reported.[15] The Israeli Air Force attacked three Hamas targets in the northern Gaza Strip.[15]

October 5: A rocket fired from within the Gaza Strip struck a street in Sderot, damaging the road, nearby cars, and homes.[16] Three people — including a 15-year-old girl and a 60-year-old man — were treated for anxiety, but no physical injuries were reported.[16] The Iron Dome system did not engage the projectile.[5] The Islamic State-affiliated Ahfad al-Sahaba–Aknaf Bayt al-Maqdis group claimed responsibility.[16] Israeli tanks struck Hamas positions in northern Gaza in response.[16] A contemporaneous report described this as the 14th rocket launched from Gaza into Israel during 2016.[16]

The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center recorded 15 rocket hits in Israeli territory during 2016, distributed across 11 incidents.[1] These figures exclude rockets launched toward Israel that fell inside the Gaza Strip. The monthly distribution of hits was as follows: January (3), February (0), March (5), April (0), May (2), June (0), July (1), August (1), September (1), October (2), November (0), and December (0).[1] March was the busiest single month, accounting for approximately one-third of the annual total.[6]

Fifteen rockets were fired into Israel during 2016, the fewest since 2005, according to the U.S. human-rights report for the year.[7] A separate U.S. government report gave a higher combined figure of 27 rockets and mortars.[17] Another analysis based on Shin Bet data stated that 23 rockets were fired from Gaza toward Israel during 2016.[18] These discrepancies reflect differing methodologies: some sources count rockets that struck Israeli territory, while others include launches regardless of where they fell or combine rockets and mortar shells.

The Shin Bet recorded two rocket-launching attacks in January 2016, with seven rockets launched toward Israel across those attacks.[19] Its July summary recorded one rocket-launching attack from Gaza and two rockets launched in that incident, contrasting with June, when no rockets or mortar shells were launched toward Israel.[11] A Jewish Virtual Library table also displays a total of 15 rockets for 2016, but it is not a Gaza-only list: its entries include a September rocket originating in Syria, launches that fell inside Gaza, and no entry for the July 1 Sderot strike.[20]

No Israeli was killed by rocket fire during 2016.[1] A later report stated that it was the first time in roughly 30 years that no Israeli had been killed by an attack emanating from Gaza during a calendar year.[18] Most attacks were attributed generally to rogue Salafi-jihadi organizations operating in Gaza independently of, and at times in opposition to, Hamas.[1] Israel nonetheless held Hamas responsible for rocket fire from territory under its control.[12]

Most rocket attacks during 2016 were attributed to Salafi-jihadi organizations operating inside Gaza rather than directly to Hamas.[1] These groups included Ajnad Bayt al-Maqdis and the Islamic State-affiliated Ahfad al-Sahaba–Aknaf Bayt al-Maqdis. They challenged Hamas's authority, and Ajnad Bayt al-Maqdis cited Hamas's detention of Salafi-jihadi operatives as one reason for its attacks.[10][16] One Salafi group described its October 2016 rocket attack on Sderot as part of the "jihad against Jews."[17]

A later U.S. State Department report attributed an unspecified August 2016 rocket attack on Sderot to the Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, the military wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.[21] Because that report did not identify the date, it does not conclusively establish that the attack was the separately documented August 21 strike. For the August 21 incident, Aknaf Bayt al-Maqdis and the PFLP issued separate responsibility claims.[14]

Regardless of which sub-state actor fired a given rocket, Israel consistently held Hamas responsible for attacks originating from the territory it governed.[12] One annual assessment characterized the Salafi-jihadi groups as seeking to provoke Israeli military responses against Hamas in order to destabilize its control of Gaza.[18]

Israeli forces responded to many of the documented rocket attacks with airstrikes or tank fire against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, consistent with Israel's policy of holding Hamas accountable for fire from Gaza regardless of the attacking organization's identity.[1][12] Following the January 1 attack, the Israeli Air Force struck four Hamas targets.[4] The March 11 barrage prompted further airstrikes on Hamas positions.[6]

In response to the August 21 Sderot rocket, the Israeli Air Force carried out approximately 50 strikes against Hamas targets.[12] The U.S. human-rights report recorded 11 airstrikes involving 23 missiles and 37 tank rounds in connection with that incident, with one Palestinian reported injured.[7]

The September 14–15 incident prompted airstrikes against three Hamas targets in the northern Gaza Strip, while Israeli tanks struck Hamas sites following the October 5 attack.[15][16] A recurring pattern during the year was that rocket fire claimed by Salafi-jihadi or other splinter groups drew Israeli strikes against Hamas infrastructure. One assessment stated that provoking such retaliation against Hamas was an objective of some of the organizations responsible for the launches.[18]

The 2016 rocket campaign was historically notable primarily for its low intensity. The annual Meir Amit assessment characterized 2016 as the quietest year since Israel's 2005 disengagement from the Gaza Strip and Hamas's 2007 takeover.[1] The U.S. human-rights report likewise stated that the 15 rockets fired into Israel were the fewest since 2005.[7]

The quiet of 2016 did not represent an end to projectile fire. Mortar-shell launches from Gaza increased compared with 2015, rising from 3 to 20 even as rocket launches fell.[2] The combined total of rockets and mortars — 35 projectiles — was higher than might be inferred from statistics counting only rocket hits in Israeli territory.[2] Home Front Command data separately recorded 35 firing incidents during the year.[3] By 2017, the breakdown had risen to 22 rockets and 24 mortar shells.[2]

For Israeli communities in the western Negev, particularly Sderot, the attacks continued to impose psychological and material costs despite their reduced number. The July 1 strike on an after-school activity center and the October 5 impact on a Sderot street, which damaged cars, homes, and the road surface, demonstrated that a small number of rockets could still reach populated areas and disrupt civilian life.[1][16]

Multiple sources reported different annual totals for 2016 because they measured different categories of fire. The figure of 15 rocket hits in Israeli territory comes from the Meir Amit annual report and is consistent with the U.S. human-rights report's total of 15 rockets fired into Israel.[1][7] The Meir Amit figure excludes mortar shells and rockets that fell short inside the Gaza Strip.

The Jewish Virtual Library also displays a 2016 total of 15 rockets, but its table should not be treated as direct corroboration of 15 Gaza-origin hits inside Israel. Its listed total includes rockets that fell inside Gaza and a September 10 rocket fired from Syria, while omitting the documented July 1 Sderot strike.[20] Its scope and methodology therefore differ from those of the Meir Amit annual statistics.

A separate U.S. government report gave 27 as a combined figure for rockets and mortars.[17] A Shin Bet-based analysis reported 23 rockets alone.[18] The Globes review counted 35 individual projectiles by combining 15 rockets with 20 mortar shells.[2] The Mako analysis recorded 35 firing incidents, a count of events rather than an independently stated count of individual projectiles.[3]

A contemporaneous report described the October 5 Sderot strike as the 14th rocket launched from Gaza into Israel during 2016.[16] That real-time figure does not map directly onto the annual total of 15 hits inside Israel or the Shin Bet's count of seven rockets launched during two January attacks.[1][19] The inconsistencies illustrate the difficulty of comparing launches, impacts, attacks, rockets, mortars, and combined projectile totals compiled by different organizations.