2019 Israeli Airstrikes in Iraq

In the years preceding the summer 2019 incidents, Israel had been conducting what analysts termed a "campaign between wars" — a sustained effort to prevent Iran and its proxies from establishing military infrastructure that could increase the threat to Israel.[1] That campaign had previously focused primarily on Syria, targeting weapons transfers and Iranian positions there.[1]

Iraq increasingly became a concern as Iran expanded its influence through the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shiite militias that the Iraqi government was attempting to bring under formal state control.[2] Among the prominent Iran-linked groups within the PMF were Kataib Hezbollah and the Badr organization.[3][4] Reporting and intelligence assessments described Iran as storing missiles, rockets, and other military equipment with Iraqi militia proxies while developing a land route through Iraq toward Syria and Lebanon for the transfer of weapons and personnel.[5]

Analysts described Iraq as part of Iran's logistical network and as a possible base for future precision-guided missile launches against Israel.[1] Iran's expanding influence in Iraq and Syria provided additional means to supply and support Hezbollah, a development that apparently contributed to Israel broadening its regional theater of military action.[2] Iraqi leaders, meanwhile, were attempting to balance relationships with both Washington and Tehran while asserting sovereignty over their territory.[2]

The first major reported incident took place on July 19, 2019, when the Iraqi army announced that a drone had twice bombed a military base near Amerli in eastern Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad.[6] The base, identified by some sources as al-Shohada, was linked to pro-Iranian Hashd al-Shaabi militias, including a Shiite Turkmen Brigade.[6] At least one person was reported killed and two wounded, with Arab media reporting that casualties included Hezbollah fighters and IRGC members.[6]

A subsequent account citing Iran's Young Journalists Club reported that IRGC Al-Qods Brigade commander Abu Alfazl Sarabian was killed in the blast, with a funeral held in Tehran before his body was returned to Kermanshah.[7] Reporting based on two senior American officials and a Middle Eastern intelligence source attributed the July 19 strike to Israel and said that an Iranian precision-missile shipment with a reported range of 200 kilometers was destroyed and three people, including an Iranian, were killed.[8]

Israel Hayom, citing Western diplomatic sources, described a second alleged strike at Camp Ashraf in Diyala Governorate targeting a shipment of ballistic-missile launchers and Iranian advisers, though the Israeli military had not commented on either report.[9] Other accounts described the sequence as continuing with explosions at Camp Saqr in Baghdad on August 12 and near Balad on August 20, followed by the destruction of a militia logistical convoy near the Iraq-Syria border on August 25.[3][4]

The August 12 explosion at Camp Saqr, also known as Camp Falcon, set off stored munitions in southern Baghdad. Contemporaneous reporting said one person was killed and 29 were injured; Iraqi police cited poor storage and high temperatures as the cause, while the government opened an investigation.[10] The Long War Journal later reported that satellite photographs posted by ImageSat International showed what appeared to be an airstrike at Camp Falcon.[11]

On August 20, an explosion struck a PMF base near Balad; witnesses said stored rockets were sent into a nearby orchard and toward the base, with one media report claiming more than 50 missiles exploded.[10] Iraq's defense minister said the cause was undetermined, while local police reported two militia members killed — a figure the minister disputed.[10]

The August 25 incident targeted vehicles moving between sites in Anbar province and adjacent areas of Syria near the Al-Qaim border crossing, along a chain of bases associated with Kataib Hezbollah and Liwa al-Tafuf.[4] The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point described this as an "apparent Israeli airstrike" focused on a route used for movement between Iraq and Syria.[4]

A further explosion on September 10 at a Popular Mobilization Forces base in Anbar province killed one militia member and wounded another.[3] PMF spokesmen alleged that Israeli drones had carried out the strike "under the cover of U.S. jets in the region as well as a large observation balloon placed near the area."[3] These were allegations by PMF spokesmen and were not independently confirmed.[3]

Israeli responsibility was never publicly confirmed by Israel. Israeli officials declined to comment directly on the strikes, and the IDF did not issue statements accepting responsibility for the individual incidents.[2] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Any country that allows its territory to be used for aggression against Israel will face the consequences," while Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon said there were "things being attributed to us that aren't ours" — statements that were not direct confirmations or denials of the Iraq strikes specifically.[2] In January 2020, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said U.S. officials had told him that Israel carried out a number of the summer 2019 bombings.[12]

On the Iraqi side, the political response intensified over the course of the summer. By September 30, 2019, Abdul Mahdi said that investigations indicated Israel had carried out the attacks on PMF positions, marking the first time Baghdad had directly and publicly blamed Israel.[13] The IDF declined to comment on his statements.[13] Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also accused Israel of attacking Iraqi military sites, arguing that the targeted militias were part of the Iraqi government.[14]

American officials found themselves in a difficult position. A senior U.S. official was cited as warning that Israel was "pushing the limits," because the airstrikes could lead Iraqi leaders to demand that U.S. forces leave Iraq.[2] The Pentagon's chief spokesperson criticized "any potential actions by external actors inciting violence in Iraq" and affirmed Iraq's right "to control their own internal security and protect their democracy."[2] Iraqi National Security Adviser Falih al-Fayadh said Iraq wanted to avoid taking sides and being "pushed into a war."[2]

In response to the explosions, Abdul Mahdi ordered weapons depots belonging to the armed forces and militias moved outside cities and canceled special flight permits for Iraqi and foreign aircraft, meaning that international coalition strikes against ISIS would require prior approval from the prime minister.[10] The Iraqi government also restricted coalition air movement after suspecting Israeli strikes against Iran-linked militias, negatively affecting the anti-ISIS mission.[11] The PMF announced a new air defense unit on September 5 amid broader concern about airspace security.[3]

Analysts placed the 2019 Iraq incidents within a broader Israeli strategic effort to counter Iranian weapons proliferation across the region. Israel had previously conducted extensive strikes in Syria targeting Iranian arms transfers, and the reported expansion into Iraq represented a geographic and political escalation of that effort.[1] INSS assessed that the operations reflected a preference for causing cumulative damage to an adversary even at the cost of higher escalation risk.[1]

The summer incidents exposed Iraq's difficulty monitoring and defending its airspace.[3] Possible attack methods included aircraft or long-range drones crossing international borders, or close-range small explosive drones or loitering munitions, without evidence establishing which method was used in any particular incident.[3] Iraq's coalition partners were not tasked with defending Iraqi sovereign airspace.[3]

The August 25 apparent strike targeted vehicles moving between two sites that the United States itself later struck in December 2019 as part of operations against Kataib Hezbollah, suggesting that the locations were recognized nodes in an Iraq-Syria weapons-transfer network.[4] The accelerating pace of violent strikes also raised concern that even a minor incident could spiral into a larger conflict.[2]

Taken together, the accounts portrayed the incidents as evidence of Israel's ability to extend its campaign beyond Syria and of Israeli concern over Iranian launch and transfer infrastructure in Iraq.[1][5] INSS characterized the perceived expansion of Israel's campaign into Iraq as a "significant change," coming after earlier efforts by both the Iraqi government and the United States to prevent such an expansion had fallen short.[1]

Attribution of the 2019 Iraq incidents rested throughout on reported sources rather than official Israeli confirmation. The evidence for Israeli responsibility remained limited: a cited U.S. inspector general report recorded media accounts rather than confirming the strikes, and satellite imagery did not establish the attacker.[11] Some U.S. sources cited by INSS suggested that high summer temperatures or inferior safety standards could explain at least some of the depot explosions.[1]

Reported counts varied considerably according to the period and geographic scope used. INSS described four explosions or attacks over roughly a month, while a JNS report cited eight arms depots and training camps hit in Iraq and Syria combined since mid-July.[1][14] A later N12 report stated that dozens of militants were killed across the alleged campaign without specifying individual incidents or providing a casualty breakdown.[15]

Casualty reporting also conflicted. For the Balad explosion, local police reported two dead while Iraq's defense minister said no one had been killed.[10] Reports concerning the July 19 incident variously described fatalities among Iraqi militia members, Iranian personnel, and an IRGC officer, but the underlying accounts were not independently confirmed.[6][7]

PMF representatives and pro-Iranian factions blamed Israel and the United States for some incidents, allegations that neither country confirmed.[14][8] Reporting on the attack platform used in the July 19 Amerli strike was similarly inconsistent: the Iraqi army described a drone, a PMF official questioned whether a drone could have produced such force, and later accounts cited unnamed sources claiming an Israeli F-35 carried out the attack.[6][7] Accounts of strikes largely stopped after August 2019, though the Long War Journal said it could not determine whether this reflected a deliberate pause or a change in Iran's posture in Iraq.[11]