2012 in Israel

At the start of 2012, Israeli strategic planners identified five principal national-security challenges: Iran's nuclear program; preservation of the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan amid the upheavals of the Arab Spring; the Syrian civil war and the risk that it could affect Israel's northern border; relations with the Palestinians, including efforts to renew negotiations; and erosion of Israel's international standing.[5] The government's overall posture was described as a risk-minimizing "waiting game," and Israel ended the year without a dramatic security event fundamentally altering its geopolitical position.[5]

Iran's nuclear program dominated the security discourse. Israeli leaders publicly argued that the opportunity to delay or halt Iran's progress was narrowing, and the government repeatedly maintained that a military strike might become necessary as early as autumn 2012.[5] International negotiations held in Baghdad, Istanbul, and Moscow failed to halt Iran's progress. Although sanctions intensified substantially by year's end, becoming "far more painful and socially and economically costly than in the past," it remained uncertain whether they would persuade Iran to abandon a military nuclear capability.[5] Ultimately, no Israeli strike occurred during the year.[5]

The regional picture was complicated by the Syrian civil war. Syria was debilitated militarily, but it still possessed hundreds of long-range missiles, thousands of rockets capable of reaching Israeli territory, modern air defenses, advanced antitank weapons, commando forces, and chemical weapons.[5] Isolated artillery shells strayed into Israeli territory from Syria, yet the Golan Heights and Lebanon fronts remained quiet throughout the year.[5] Egypt's peace treaty with Israel stayed in force despite the installation of a Muslim Brotherhood-led government. Official Egyptian rhetoric toward Israel was hostile, but contacts continued through intelligence and military channels, and Egypt ultimately played a constructive mediating role during the November Gaza conflict.[5]

Israeli domestic politics in 2012 were shaped by a brief but consequential experiment in national unity. In Kadima's March 27 leadership election, Shaul Mofaz defeated former party leader Tzipi Livni, receiving 61.7 percent of the vote compared with Livni's 37.2 percent.[7] On May 8, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Mofaz formed a unity government after plans for early elections had begun advancing.[8] The new coalition commanded 94 of the Knesset's 120 seats, described as Israel's largest coalition since 1984.[3] Mofaz became deputy prime minister and minister without portfolio, while the agreement promised legislation replacing the Tal Law, electoral reform, and passage of a state budget.[8]

The Tal Law—a controversial measure exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from compulsory military service—stood at the center of the coalition agreement and was due to expire in August 2012.[8] The enlarged coalition, in which Likud, Kadima, and Yisrael Beitenu collectively held 70 of the 94 coalition seats, reduced the leverage of ultra-Orthodox parties and created greater room to legislate a replacement.[8] The announced agenda also included reducing the wealth gap, improving economic conditions, and framing Israel's response to Iran's nuclear program.[9]

The unity government proved short-lived. Kadima left the coalition in July after Netanyahu rejected its preferred changes to mandatory military service, particularly changes affecting ultra-Orthodox Israelis.[4] With Kadima's 28 members departing, the coalition reverted to its earlier, narrower configuration.[4] In late October, Netanyahu announced that Likud would contest the forthcoming elections on a joint slate with Yisrael Beiteinu.[4] Having failed to agree on a budget, the government called early elections for January 22, 2013, nine months ahead of schedule.[4]

Operation Pillar of Defense, launched on November 14 and concluded on November 21, 2012, was the year's defining military event.[1] The opening action was a joint IDF–Israel Security Agency strike that killed Ahmed al-Jaabari, Hamas's senior military commander, and his aide Mohammed al-Hums.[10] Israeli aircraft then attacked weapons-storage sites and rocket-launching pits containing Iranian-supplied Fajr-5 long-range rockets associated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.[10] Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that the operation's objectives were to strengthen deterrence, damage the terrorist organizations' rocket-firing capabilities, strike Hamas and other armed groups, and minimize harm to Israel's civilian population.[10]

The scale of the rocket assault on Israeli civilians was severe. Approximately 40 rocket hits were identified on November 14, while Iron Dome intercepted 27 rockets that day. By the afternoon of November 15, more than 200 rockets had landed in Israeli territory.[10] Rockets targeted Beersheba, Ashdod, Ashqelon, Netivot, Ofaqim, Gan Yavneh, and Kiryat Malachi.[10] On November 15, a direct hit on the top floor of an apartment building in Kiryat Malachi killed three Israeli civilians and wounded six, including a four-year-old boy and two infant girls.[10] By that same afternoon, approximately 45 civilians had been treated for injuries, and considerable property damage had occurred across the south.[10]

A Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs analysis estimated that Gaza factions had accumulated 10,000–12,000 rockets by November 2012, compared with approximately 5,000 in 2008, and that the arsenal included rockets capable of reaching Tel Aviv.[11] It was reported as the first time since Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 that rockets were fired directly toward the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.[12] The Israel Security Agency's annual summary recorded 1,731 rocket launchings during Operation Pillar of Defense.[13]

Over the full year, Gaza-based groups fired 2,327 rockets and mortar shells into Israel, compared with 419 rockets and 244 mortar shells in 2011.[2] The Israel Security Agency recorded 309 total casualties from terrorist attacks during 2012, with 269 occurring in November alone; 243 were attributed to rocket fire, 30 to improvised explosive devices, 19 to stones or firebombs, 12 to stabbings, four to shooting or combined attacks, and one to a vehicle-ramming attack.[13] Six Israelis were killed by high-trajectory rocket and mortar fire during the operation, and 29 additional people were injured in a Tel Aviv bus bombing on November 21, the final day of fighting.[13]

The ceasefire was brokered by Egypt and the United States and took effect on November 21.[1] An INSS assessment described Egypt's role in securing the agreement as a constructive dimension of the otherwise strained Egyptian-Israeli relationship.[5] A Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs analysis reported that Israel conducted the operation without launching a ground invasion, allowed 80 truckloads of humanitarian assistance into Gaza during the fighting, and achieved an estimated 85 percent Iron Dome interception rate. The same analysis said the supporting arrangements assigned Hamas ultimate responsibility for enforcing compliance among Gaza factions.[11]

Beyond the November Gaza conflict, Israel faced a wider pattern of terrorist attacks throughout 2012. There were 2,001 recorded terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens during the year: 281 in Jerusalem, six elsewhere inside Israel, 11 cross-border attacks from Egypt, 576 attacks in the West Bank—known by its original, indigenous Jewish name of Judea and Samaria—and 1,127 attacks originating in the Gaza Strip.[2] The attacks killed nine people and injured 307.[2] Using a separate accounting methodology, the Israel Security Agency recorded ten deaths from terrorist attacks in 2012, compared with 22 in 2011: six civilians and four military personnel. Seven fatalities resulted from attacks originating in Gaza, two from Sinai, and one from a firing incident inside Israel.[13]

The Sinai Peninsula emerged as a growing threat vector. Cross-border attacks from Egypt killed Said Pashpasha, an Israeli Arab construction worker building the border fence, on June 18, and Corporal Netanel Yahalomi, an Israeli soldier, on September 21.[2] An August 2012 attack originating in Sinai targeted an Egyptian military garrison and Israeli border checkpoints; the Congressional Research Service described the incident as highlighting the threat from terrorist groups with apparent links to Al Qaeda-style networks.[4] Subsequent Egyptian military deployments in Sinai, while aimed at suppressing those groups, generated Israeli concerns about restrictions imposed by the 1979 peace treaty.[4]

Approximately 2,300 terror suspects were arrested in 2012, and about 100 significant planned attacks were prevented by Israeli security forces.[13] The Israel Security Agency also seized 20 kilograms of explosives and activating devices allegedly smuggled through the Lebanese border by Hizballah, along with approximately 10 million NIS in terrorist financing.[13]

In July 2012, a bombing in Burgas, Bulgaria, targeted a bus carrying Israeli tourists, killing six people—including the Bulgarian bus driver—and injuring 32; multiple reports attributed the attack to Hezbollah.[4] The attack underscored the international scope of the shadow conflict surrounding Iran's nuclear program, which included reported cyberattacks, attacks on Iranian nuclear-program personnel, and alleged Iranian or Hezbollah plots against Israeli targets.[4] In October, Israel and the United States launched Austere Challenge 12, described as their largest-ever joint defense exercise, involving approximately 3,500 U.S. military personnel and 1,000 IDF soldiers in a three-week air- and missile-defense drill.[14]

The United States deepened its security relationship with Israel during 2012. President Barack Obama signed the United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act on July 27, 2012. The measure supported deeper defense cooperation, including financial and technological assistance for missile defense, access to U.S. defense equipment and excess defense articles, and additional opportunities for joint training.[15] Fiscal year 2012 included $3 billion in Foreign Military Financing for Israel, and an additional $70 million was provided in July 2012 to maximize Iron Dome production.[15] Austere Challenge 12, described as the largest joint defense exercise conducted by the two countries, reinforced this cooperation at the operational level.[14]

The political impasse with the Palestinians deepened during 2012. The Palestinian Authority was described as politically and economically weak, pursuing a strategy of challenging Israel through international institutions while making reconciliation overtures to Hamas.[5] Israel responded with a largely passive policy and moderate punitive measures, partly constrained by international pressure and concern about destabilizing the Palestinian Authority entirely.[5] Efforts to restart permanent-status negotiations were assessed as fruitless.[5]

Palestinian domestic politics also saw notable events. Qatar's emir visited Gaza in October 2012 and pledged $400 million for infrastructure projects.[4] Local elections took place in Judea and Samaria in October without Hamas participation, while no parallel elections were held in Gaza.[4] Palestinian protests in Judea and Samaria in September targeted the Palestinian Authority and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad over deteriorating economic conditions.[4]

The year's most significant diplomatic setback came on November 29, when the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 67/19, upgrading Palestine's status from permanent observer to non-member observer state. The vote was 138 in favor, 9 against, and 41 abstentions.[6] The new status enabled the Palestinian Authority to seek participation in international organizations and conventions that had previously been accessible only to recognized states.[16] Israel voted against the resolution; Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that the vote represented a step backward in the peace process and that face-to-face negotiations could not be replaced by UN resolutions.[17] The INSS assessment characterized the vote as Israel's most significant diplomatic setback of the year and as evidence of growing diplomatic isolation.[5]

In March 2012, Israel suspended its participation in the UN Human Rights Council after that body approved a fact-finding mission on Israeli settlements, and it partially suspended coordination with UNESCO.[2]

At the end of 2012, Israel's population numbered approximately 7.985 million: roughly 6.0 million Jews (75.1 percent), 1.647 million Arabs (20.6 percent), and 338,000 classified as "others" (4.2 percent), representing overall population growth of 1.9 percent during the year.[18] Israel's core Jewish population stood at an estimated 5,901,100 at the start of 2012 and grew to 6,014,300 by the start of 2013, an increase of approximately 113,200. The increase was attributed to a natural balance of roughly 89,500 births over deaths, approximately 4,300 conversions to Judaism, and a net Israel-Diaspora migration balance of about 19,400.[19] Life expectancy in 2012 was 83.6 years for women and 80.0 years for men, while the infant mortality rate was 3.7 per 1,000 live births.[20]

A total of 16,557 new immigrants arrived in Israel in 2012, compared with 16,892 in 2011.[19] The largest origin groups—each contributing more than 1,500 immigrants—were Russia, Ethiopia, the United States, Ukraine, and France.[19] Approximately 8,800 Israelis returned from abroad after more than a year away; the migration balance of Israelis who departed and returned was negative, at approximately 7,100 people.[21] There were 170,940 births in Israel in 2012, 2.8 percent more than in 2011, with approximately 73 percent born to Jewish mothers and 24 percent to Arab mothers; the total fertility rate was estimated at 3.05 children per woman.[18]

The arrival of irregular migrants, primarily from Africa, generated one of the year's sharpest domestic controversies. The government reported 10,285 new arrivals during 2012, although arrivals fell sharply after June following construction of a fence along the Egyptian border and other deterrence measures.[2] A June amendment to the Prevention of Infiltration Law defined irregular border crossers as "infiltrators" and permitted indefinite detention under specified conditions.[2] At a May 23 anti-immigrant rally in south Tel Aviv, some Knesset members described African migrants as "a cancer in our body"; the episode contributed to riots and violence against African residents.[2] Arsonists attacked homes occupied by African migrants in April and May, and on July 31 a man stabbed three Eritrean men in south Tel Aviv in an incident police believed was racially motivated.[2] Out of approximately 8,000 asylum applications submitted over the preceding two years, the Interior Ministry had recognized only one person as a refugee by year's end.[22]

Israel's economy experienced slower growth in 2012 amid global economic weakness. GDP grew by approximately 3.2 percent in the Israeli statistical series cited by the government's OECD survey, while the general-government deficit widened from 3.9 percent to 5.1 percent of GDP and the central-government deficit reached 3.9 percent of GDP, well above the original 2 percent target.[23] A Congressional Research Service estimate placed real GDP growth at 2.4 percent, unemployment at 6.3 percent, inflation at 2.1 percent, and military spending at 6.4 percent of GDP.[4]

Tourism reached a record level despite the November conflict. Approximately 3.5 million visitor arrivals were recorded in 2012, including 2.9 million tourist arrivals and 0.6 million day visitors, generating tourism income of $4.4 billion, a 3 percent increase over 2011.[24] November arrivals fell 43 percent from the prior year during the Gaza escalation, but the year's overall performance was nonetheless the strongest on record; 58 percent of incoming tourists were Christian pilgrims, and 62 percent were first-time visitors.[24] The inability to agree on a state budget was among the proximate causes of the early dissolution of the Knesset and the calling of early elections.[4]

The 2012 Israeli Democracy Index, based on a national survey of 1,025 adults conducted in April and May, found that 38.1 percent of respondents described Israel's overall situation as very or quite good, while 20.0 percent described it as very or quite bad.[25] Government performance ratings were notably weak: 38.4 percent said the government handled problems well or very well, compared with 59.0 percent who said it handled them not so well or not at all well. The report described the latter figure as the lowest rating recorded since the series began in 2003.[25]

Social tensions identified by respondents were wide-ranging. Some 70.6 percent viewed tensions between Jews and Arabs as severe, making this the most widely identified cleavage, followed by religious-secular tensions at 59.7 percent, rich-poor tensions at 55.7 percent, and right-left political or security tensions at 51.8 percent.[25] Looking back at the mass social-justice protests of summer 2011, 25.5 percent of respondents said they had participated. Most credited the protests with raising awareness of socioeconomic gaps and increasing media attention, while fewer believed they had changed government priorities or reduced the influence of the wealthiest group.[25]

In Jerusalem's school system, approximately 245,600 students were enrolled during the 2011/2012 academic year. The Haredi Education Division enrolled 95,700 students, the Hebrew state and state-religious systems enrolled 58,900, and the Arab sector enrolled 70,000. Over the preceding five academic years, total enrollment rose 9 percent, with Haredi enrollment growing 11 percent and Arab-sector enrollment growing 21 percent, while the Hebrew state and state-religious system contracted by 3 percent.[26]

A significant archaeological discovery during 2012 shed further light on Jerusalem's ancient history. A clay bulla—a seal impression less than one inch across—was found in debris from an excavation at the City of David, bearing an ancient Hebrew inscription mentioning Bethlehem.[27] The fragment was dated to approximately 2,700 years ago and was interpreted as probably connected to goods or taxes paid to the Kingdom of Judah. Archaeologist Eli Shukron described it as the first occurrence of the name Bethlehem outside the Bible in an inscription from the First Temple period.[27]

In competitive sports, Israeli chess grandmaster Boris Gelfand reached the final of the 2012 World Chess Championship, finishing second after his match against defending champion Viswanathan Anand ended level at six points each; Anand then won the rapid playoff 2.5–1.5.[28] Prime Minister Netanyahu described Gelfand's performance as both a personal achievement and a source of national pride.[28]

The INSS year-end assessment described Israel's 2012 balance sheet as mixed, with positive elements potentially outweighing negative ones.[5] On the positive side, it cited relative quiet on most borders, continued operation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, strong deterrence, reduced immediate conventional danger from Syria as a result of the degradation of its military in the civil war, restored quiet on the Gaza border following Operation Pillar of Defense, strengthening sanctions against Iran, and continued economic stabilization.[5]

On the negative side, the assessment pointed to Iran's continued nuclear progress despite sanctions, the failure to advance Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, and erosion of Israel's international standing and legitimacy—most sharply illustrated by the November 29 UN vote.[5] Taken together, the year demonstrated Israel's capacity to manage simultaneous military, diplomatic, and domestic pressures without a fundamental rupture, while leaving the most consequential long-term questions, above all Iran's nuclear program, unresolved.

Several of the year's major episodes were the subject of significant factual or political dispute. Casualty figures for Operation Pillar of Defense varied substantially by source. The State Department, citing UN data, reported that Israeli strikes killed 158 Palestinians, including 103 civilians, 30 children, and 13 women, while Israeli and Palestinian sources offered differing counts and characterizations of combatant and civilian status.[2] Official rocket totals also differed: an Israeli government account reported approximately 1,500 rockets and mortars during the operation, while the Israel Security Agency recorded 1,731 rocket launchings.[1][13]

The legal and political significance of UN General Assembly Resolution 67/19 remained contested. A Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs legal analysis argued that observer-state status was distinct from full UN membership and that the resolution did not itself determine sovereignty over Judea and Samaria or Gaza, matters the analysis maintained could be resolved only through a permanent-status agreement.[29]

The treatment of African asylum seekers—including extended detention, the extremely low recognition rate for asylum claims, and violence against African residents in Tel Aviv—generated intense domestic debate.[2][22] Disagreements over migration policy, detention, integration, and the terminology applied to irregular arrivals remained unresolved at year's end.